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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/836-Ou....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-02-27 22:46:30
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Wyocowboy Posts: 3505 Incept: 2007-08-17 
Wyoming's Rocky Mountains
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Smarmy--I had to look that word up. smarm·y (smärm) adj. smarm·i·er, smarm·i·est 1. Hypocritically, complacently, or effusively earnest; unctuous. See Synonyms at unctuous. 2. Sleek. ---------- An excuse is nothing more than an explanation of failure. Churchill A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul. George Bernard Shaw 2009-02-27 23:02:56
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Gt80 Posts: 218 Incept: 2008-01-20
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Karl- you have several references to "K-1" that need to be changed to "10-K." Great piece.thanks. 2009-02-27 23:20:02
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Jesus I'm tired :) Bedtime for me. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-02-27 23:25:56
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Economic4caster Posts: 58 Incept: 2008-12-10 Riverside, CA
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Great job Karl, now get some rest!
2009-02-27 23:28:51
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Ylekiot Posts: 1 Incept: 2009-02-23
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Mr. Denninger, Thank you for what you're doing here. I know enough from your 'TF University' to be concerned (scared), albeit with limited understanding. Now that I've entered Med school and will graduate into an industry that will be a Trotskyesque shadow of its former glory, your postings are helping us to adjust our heading in the storm. I realize there isn't a crystal ball. But if our vehicle is stalled on the tracks, we can see the locomotive coming without a crystal ball. The only people who are disseminating hopeful forecasts are the same liars who parked our car on the tracks in the first place. DC bailed and took the keys with 'em. I'm serious when I ask if you see any hope at this point? And if so, how do you feel the recovery would play out? Thanks for your patience, I'm on the financial short bus, but would like to hear an off-the-cuff prognostication from a non-partisan, straight shooter. Thx, yle UMMMM Nevermind...your follow-up posted as I was typing. THX. Last modified:
2009-02-27 23:37:42 by ylekiot
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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I think we're ****ed, to be honest. Listen to the BlogTalkRadio show Monday. I'm going to go into this in considerable detail - it'll be the monologue at the front of the show. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-02-27 23:33:24
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Mtgspy Posts: 5860 Incept: 2007-10-27 
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Karl, would you mind discussing the apparent "arbitrage" between tsy rate and the projected GDP. This is i think a critical item in the fraudsters toolbox that has to be debunked. Without it the house comes crumbling down faster.
---------- You kill them all! - Genesis 2009-02-27 23:35:11
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Psquared Posts: 957 Incept: 2008-10-11 SE USA
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I guess I need to reread the ticker, but this one I'm not sure I get. From what you've said, it is not so much the losses they have marked (using their own models) which are relatively modest, but that these 3 companies flat out lied in their previous earnings announcement and then released it in an SEC filing to try and bury it? Second, how can we trust what they report ... or don't report? BAC says they lost 20+ billion, but how do we know it's not 180 billion? Third, haven't they been reporting these kinds of losses for 5 or 6 quarters now? Seems like it won't ever stop. I suspect, that in fact, is happening and will happen. These losses will not stop because 40% of the guaranteed refis will also default thereby increasing the losses on the banks books no matter what the government does (which they can continue to hide) Fourth, if they are lying through their teeth and insiders are trading on it where's the ****ing enforcement. (dang it, I gave up cussing for lent - but I think Jesus will forgive me) Fifth, the only thing I can think of is that they know the gig is up and their "ONLY" hope is that the real estate market stabilizes and miraculously people are able to pay their mortgages. Sixth, part of the above would be that they buy more printing machines to get more dollars out there and lets exponent this sucker into outer space. We no longer have to scream, "this **** has to stop" because it will stop on its own and there's nothing BB, TBT, BHO or anyone else can do about it. It's gonna happen and it is going to be ugly because it will be a blamefest, class warfare (look what happened in England today) and just an all around big f'ing mess. It will take decades to clean up IF it gets cleaned up. We might all be living like the Russians in the late 70s when there was nothing on the grocery shelves. A depression ---> anarchy ------> martial law -----> corporatism ----> fascism -----> dictatorship -----> war. Someone else said this ... it wasn't me; but what we have is not the take over of business by the government, but the take over of the government by business. How else could they get away with repeatedly lying and Cuomo can't even find the balls to indict someone? ---------- I have money, therefore I exist. Last modified:
2009-02-28 00:10:08 by psquared
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Asimov Posts: 21231 Incept: 2007-08-26
east tennessee Online
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The enforcement is the same place it was for madoff during his 13 years of no ****ing trades. They don't give a ****. And they no longer care if you know because it's too far gone to matter. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente. 2009-02-27 23:59:30
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Cjworkman Posts: 5015 Incept: 2007-08-22
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The enforcement is not there because they don't want to take over and run the banks. Which is what would have to happen if they enforced it. That's why the quasi nationalization. And I unfortunately agree with Karl... unless we retake 741 and hold it strong within the next 5 days max... we are seriously ****ed. ---------- Ben is going to create an equity bubble from excess liquidity that tops at 1200... and bottoms at 300. A bubble inside of bearish economic conditions, so that it never reaches new market highs and crashes far below the lows. - me 2009-02-28 00:08:03
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Ababeinthewoods Posts: 69 Incept: 2008-12-22
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CJ what's the next support below 741 and how much does that support level depend upon equilibrium in the markets? Isn't tech analysis in this market analogous to letting your gps steer your car for you? Yes, yes, ofcourse I'm a dumb-ass. It's just a question. Humour me... ---------- In the beginning a patriot is a scarce man; hated, feared and scorned. But in time, when his cause succeeds, the timid join them, because then it costs nothing to be a patriot. 2009-02-28 00:15:29
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Ilikecoffee Posts: 908 Incept: 2008-04-17
cold , AK
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It seems to me at this point that any sticksave/giveaways carry such a large negative impact that it negates the save quickly. Control on the way down is the best this country can hope for.
---------- You can trust the government, ask any American Indian. "When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it" Gerald Celente 2009-02-28 00:18:18
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Psquared Posts: 957 Incept: 2008-10-11 SE USA
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Given the way the market acted the last 45 minutes I don't see us retaking 741 on the S&P or 7400 on the Dow. The Daq is ****ed. They won't be able to give away cellphones, satellite dishes, DVRs, TIVOs, XBoxes or big screen TVs. Not to mention everyone already owns a computer so Dell may as well make bedspreads and straw hats. I hear people talking about not going to the doctor and just being sick and use home remedies. People are giving up ice cream and cookies to be able to afford meat once a week. 6.2% GDP contraction huh ... I guess that was W's fault. the quicker we admit to this **** and start getting it over with the quicker we can rebuild - maybe with honesty and integrity this time. ---------- I have money, therefore I exist. 2009-02-28 00:18:45
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Cjworkman Posts: 5015 Incept: 2007-08-22
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Ababe, Technically, an obvious failure below 741 (which is not set in stone yet) .. but a waterfall down only has 2 potential stops.. 520's and just under 400. I think 400 is more likely in the case of a waterfall crashish sell off over a couple weeks. Karl thinks a sell off of that magnitude, shaving almost another 50% off the market will cause a chain reaction of other bad **** that will cause yet another waterfall. I don't want to speak for him, but suspect he has a possible worst case scenario target of 250ish on the S&P. Which would be a 85% loss top to bottom and be equivalent of the full market decline of the great depression. Although it's questionable our government would survive another event of that magnitude with todays massive deficits. There's a couple charts I posted in this thread.. that show where i come up with the 520's or 400 targets for a waterfall sell off. http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak.... ---------- Ben is going to create an equity bubble from excess liquidity that tops at 1200... and bottoms at 300. A bubble inside of bearish economic conditions, so that it never reaches new market highs and crashes far below the lows. - me Last modified:
2009-02-28 00:29:42 by cjworkman
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Templar223 Posts: 364 Incept: 2008-04-28
Champaign, IL
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Karl: Go to bed. You've earned it. Congrats on the award and welcome back to the forum. So, reading your epistle tonight, how close are we to the precipice and how bad will it be? Bad as in I should go to the store and increase my stock from "well healed" to "hoarding" or should I just "don't worry, be happy but be prepared"? John 2009-02-28 00:25:02
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1011101 Posts: 905 Incept: 2007-10-05
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Sounds like game over. Time to reset.
2009-02-28 01:20:18
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Reza30 Posts: 214 Incept: 2009-02-15
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Dear Mr. President, With All Due Respect .... (Mish nails it) With all due respect Mr. President, Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke are offering the same policies as President Bush and Secretary Paulson. Those policies are to bail out banks regardless of cost to taxpayers. Mr. President, it's hard enough to overlook Geithner's tax indiscretions. Mr. President, it is harder still. if not impossible, to ignore the fact that neither Geithner nor Bernanke saw this coming. Yet amazingly they are both **** sure of the solution. Even more amazing is the fact that solution changes every day. With all due respect Mr. President, Geithner and Bernanke are a huge part of the problem, and no part of the solution and the sooner you realize that the better off this nation will be. With all due respect Mr. President, your budget proposal is the same big government spending as we saw under President Bush. The only difference is you promised more spending and bigger government, while President Bush promised less government and less spending and failed to deliver on either count. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c.... 
2009-02-28 02:46:14
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Scotsman Posts: 32 Incept: 2007-07-15 Great NW
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Politics and the markets, walking hand-in-hand. It begs the question, is Obama an idiot, or as smart as they claim? I don't think he's an idiot, so what we are witnessing must be intentional, the manipulation of an opportunity to force and then cement radical political change. Our "leaders" aren't dumb, but they are corrupt and entirely self-serving. And their goals are more aligned with political ideology than market stability. Get ready to hang on for an "E-Ticket" ride!
2009-02-28 03:01:31
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Bozonian Posts: 13051 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin Online
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Unctuous? That just sounds bad. Or else Obama is sleek.Quote:Karl- you have several references to "K-1" that need to be changed to "10-K." Or K-Y 
---------- If deficits don't matter, then the Federal Government can borrow the money it needs and stop taxing the citizens. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice. Last modified:
2009-02-28 03:38:58 by bozonian
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Jazumah Posts: 116 Incept: 2008-08-20 New York
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http://www.businessinsider.com/banks-adm.... Highlights more of the game...Bloomberg is staying on it, too. 2009-02-28 05:29:07
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Aac123 Posts: 1514 Incept: 2007-09-23
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Excuse the use of band width here but Excellent Ticker
---------- Any one of us who doesn't have a healthy fear of the unknown isn't paying attention - Bank of America's Ken Lewis 2009-02-28 06:26:32
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Loudoungroup Posts: 2784 Incept: 2008-02-01
San Antonio, TX Online
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Were losing 2003 lows, don't pass go, directly to 1992-93 levels. GL. Thanks again. ---------- http://caps.fool.com/player/loudoungroup.aspx 2009-02-28 07:13:58
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Triumphsm Posts: 44 Incept: 2008-11-21
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Bloomberg has an excellent piece by David Reilly titled "Bank Tests Ignore Black Swans, Rely on Grey Goose". The whole concept of the so-called "stress tests" for banks are a farce. "Treasury plans to have the banks conduct the stress tests themselves; regulators will check the results." So even though there is plenty of evidence in the recent 10K filings that the banks routinely lie about their losses, the Government...for some insane reason...is going to trust them to do their own tests. And who are these regulators that are going to check the results? Are they from the same batch of crooks that allowed Madoff and Stanford to run fraudulent schemes for years? When is this corruption and the opaque scams going to stop? Where is the transparency that President Obama promised? Instead we just get more lies and incompetence. 2009-02-28 08:41:43
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Steve Posts: 81 Incept: 2008-12-20
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Quote:Karl- you have several references to "K-1" that need to be changed to "10-K." Karl- you have several references to "K-1" that need to be changed to "KY."  It calls to mind two great if opposite geniuses. Jim Morrison: Quote:I dunno what's gonna happen man--but I'm gonna get my kicks before the whole s***house goes up in flames, ALL RIGHT!  H. P. Lovecraft: Quote:Then, whispered Castro, those first men formed the cult around tall idols which the Great Ones showed them; idols brought in dim eras from dark stars. That cult would never die till the stars came right again, and the secret priests would take great Cthulhu from His tomb to revive His subjects and resume His rule of earth. The time would be easy to know, for then mankind would have become as the Great Old Ones; free and wild and beyond good and evil, with laws and morals thrown aside and all men shouting and killing and revelling in joy. Then the liberated Old Ones would teach them new ways to shout and kill and revel and enjoy themselves, and all the earth would flame with a holocaust of ecstasy and freedom. Meanwhile the cult, by appropriate rites, must keep alive the memory of those ancient ways and shadow forth the prophecy of their return.  Or let me paraphrase: Quote:Then, whispered Denninger, those first men formed the cult around tall idols which the Libertarians showed them; idols brought in dim eras from dark stars. That cult would never die till the stars came right again, and the secret priests would take great Free Market from His tomb to revive His subjects and resume His rule of earth. The time would be easy to know, for then mankind would have become as the Libertarians; free and wild and beyond good and evil, with laws and morals thrown aside and all men shouting and killing and revelling in joy. Then the liberated Libertarians would teach them new ways to shout and kill and revel and enjoy themselves, and all the earth would flame with a holocaust of ecstasy and freedom. Meanwhile the cult, by appropriate rites, must keep alive the memory of those ancient ways and shadow forth the prophecy of their return on Market Ticker. 
Last modified:
2009-02-28 09:16:01 by steve
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